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April 2023
- Feds ease foreign buyer ban, codify assistance for distressed borrowers
- Sellers disappear, inventory tightens in Toronto
- Vancouver home sales jump, prices firm
- Calgary continues to outperform
- Bank of Canada hints at “higher for longer”
- Inventory tumbles in March: Have we already peaked for this cycle?
- Supply and demand: Housing starts tumble, immigration surges to start 2023
- Credit card borrowing jumps in February
- Consumer check: Arrears still low but rising
- Why I’m still very positive on Atlantic Canada
March 2023
- Canada’s economy hits stall speed in Q4
- Are animal spirits and FOMO returning in Toronto?
- Vancouver housing demand springs to life in February
- Calgary sales tick up, inventory falls
- Bond market jitters and recession fears set the stage for lower mortgage rates
- Home sales perk up, inventory falls in February
- Supply and demand: More than meets the eye in latest population data
- Household debt burdens jump in Q4 with more still to come
- Consumer check: Largest increase in insolvencies since 2009
February 2023
- Bank of Canada reaffirms rate holds, but don’t expect cuts this year. Unless…
- No signs of stabilizing yet in Toronto
- Vancouver home sales start 2023 on weak footing
- Calgary sales slump for 11th straight month
Coming soon.
January 2023
- Takeaways from preliminary home sales data
- Fixed rates tick down, 1 in 5 homeowners can no longer afford their own house
- More signs the rental market may be cooling
- Credit tidbits: Insolvencies jump, credit card charge-offs rise
- Odds and ends: CFIB Barometer, consumer confidence, 2023 charts to
- Recessionary signals drag rates lower- BoC pause on deck
- December home sales rise, new listings plunge
- Death by 1,000 cuts: Regulators propose slew of new measures
- Mortgage growth tumbles in November
- Consumer check: Confidence still in the dumps, spending under pressure
December 2022
- A classic “dovish hike” from the Bank of Canada
- Toronto home sales resume slide in November
- Vancouver home sales under pressure again
- Alberta outperformance continues
- Sticky inflation frustrates the BoC even as they signal a pause
- November home sales: Inventory back on the rise, prices grind lower
- Supply and demand: ANOTHER record for population growth
- Mortgage rates update: Fixed rates drift lower, mortgage growth tumbles
- Consumer check: Debt service ratios jump, housing weighs on net worth
November 2022
- Affordability challenges intensify
- Toronto home sales flat in October, sellers remain on sidelines
- Vancouver home sales tick up in October
- Alberta still looking solid
- Mounting recession risks put downward pressure on rates
- Takeaway from October home sales: Sales and inventory rise, prices grind lower
- Supply and demand: New immigration targets, but is growth already peaking?
- Mortgage rates update: Borrowers keep betting against the Bank of Canada
- Consumer check: More signs of stress building
October 2022
- A gut punch from the Bank of Canada
- Toronto home sales give up August gains, prices slip
- Vancouver home sellers move to sidelines as new listings plunge
- Calgary and Edmonton sales under pressure
- Largest drop in bond yields in a decade signals potential pivot
- Frozen pre-construction market is a bad omen
- Takeaway from September home sales: Sales and prices grind lower
- Supply and demand: Monster population growth!
- Mortgage tidbits: The great mortgage rate flippening?
- Consumer check: Credit card balances jump, insolvencies up sharply
September 2022
- Affordability pressures intensify as Bank of Canada continues to hike rates
- Toronto home sales snap back in August
- Vancouver home sales down slightly
- Calgary and Edmonton continue to buck national trends
- Finally signs that core inflationary pressures are breaking
- Takeaway from August home sales: New listings evaporate as markets stabilize
- Supply and demand: Pent-up demand builds as ownership rate falls
- Rates update: Fixed and variable finally converge
- Consumer check: Cracks appear in credit card data, CMHC beefs up collections
August 2022
- Finally some relief for potential buyers as rates begin to grind lower
- Takeaways from Toronto and Vancouver home sales
- Alberta outperformance continues
- If inflation is cooling, why are bond yields rising again?
- What’s the big deal with trigger rates?
- Takeaway from July home sales: Steep drop in prices, but also some good news
- Supply and demand: Record construction activity, immigration surge continues
- Mortgage market update: Finally some reprieve for prospective buyers as rates fall
- Consumer check: First signs of a slowdown in spending, insolvencies rise
July 2022
- Economic commentary: Outsized rate hike next week but the end is in sight
- Toronto home sales hit 20-year lows in June
- Vancouver home sales slide, prices begin to soften
- Alberta still holding firm
- Finally signs that inflationary pressures may be easing?
- Updating the most important chart
- Takeaway from June home sales: Record drop in house prices
- Supply and demand: Housing starts jump, immigration hits yet another record
- Mortgage market update
- Consumer check: Rising rates begin to bite
June 2022
- Economic commentary: Bank of Canada signals more rate hikes may be needed
- More price pressure in Toronto as sales tumble again, condo market weakens
- Vancouver home sales slide, prices begin to soften
- Alberta sales slow, prices stall. Are condo speculators moving this market?
- Affordability under pressure as rates continue to surge
- Takeaway from May home sales: Sales down, prices in Ontario under pressure
- Supply and demand: Housing starts jump, immigration hits yet another record
- Credit trends: Mortgage boom peaks in QI, no uptick in insolvencies yet
May 2022
- Economic commentary: Jobs market still strong (for now), but where’s the wage growth?
- Toronto slowdown intensifies, prices slip
- Vancouver home sales tumble 22%, prices hold firm for now
- Alberta home sales slow but price gains accelerate
- Inflation stunner means more tightening ahead from Bank of Canada
- Interest rates are taking a huge bite out of affordability
- Home sales tumble, prices slip in April
- Housing starts jump, immigration hits new record, rental market tightens
- Mortgage growth remains high in March, variable rates still popular
- Consumer check: Insolvencies and delinquencies still low, but probably not for long
- OSFI keeps busy fighting the last battle
April 2022
- Economic commentary: The only chart that matters
- Clear signs of a sudden shift in Toronto
- Vancouver sales fall 24%, but still no supply
- Alberta booms as population flows pick up steam
- Quebec home sales continue to slow off record pace
- Thoughts on cyclical vs secular downturn
- Inflation stunner means more tightening ahead from Bank of Canada
- Interest rates are about to seriously mess things up!
- National home sales update: Sales fall, inventory still low but rising quickly
- Supply/demand deep-dive: Huge surge in new resident admissions so far in 2022
- Mortgage growth hits 14-year high, variable rate popularity surges
- Monitoring key risks: OSFI puts mortgage market on notice
March 2022
- Economic commentary: War and recession risk
- Subtle signs of change in Toronto housing as inventory levels surge
- Vancouver posts largest ever monthly house price gain even as condo listings surge
- Calgary home sales keep surging
- Quebec home sales stall but lack of inventory keeps market tight
- Bank of Canada hikes, signals more to come as inflation rages
- National home sales update
- Largest increase in active listings since 2010
- Pullback in demand still likely as sales remain 25% above normal levels
- Market still extremely tight, record jump in price
- A massive misallocation of capital or the new normal?
- Supply/demand deep-dive: Immigration hits new highs just as housing starts slow
- Household credit update: Insolvencies stable, balance sheets look solid
- Household balance sheets still look very solid in Q4
- Still no signs of stress among borrowers
- Macro backdrop still looks solid
- BUT….borrowers are beginning to feel the pinch of rising rates
- Mortgage market update: Variable accounts for 60% of new mortgages
- Household credit growth hits highest since 2009
- Surge in demand for variable rate products
- Originations hit record in Q4
- Real rates still deeply negative
- Monitoring key risks
- Russia/Ukraine conflict could create food security issues
- Mortgage regulation changes
February 2022
- Bank of Canada rate hikes baked in for March
- National home sales update
- I’m calling it: We are witnessing peak insanity
- Setting up for a significant slowdown in the back half of the year?
- Alberta housing: Still quietly booming
- Supply/demand deep-dive: Big increase to federal immigration targets
- Household credit update: Insolvencies fall, consumer spending slows
- Consumer spending slows: Was it really Omicron or is there more at play?
- HELOCs back in vogue
- Consumer insolvencies remains low for now
- Mortgage market update: Borrowers still love variable rates
- Household credit growth slows in December
- Fixed mortgage rates continue to rise, variable originations surge
January 2022
- Economic commentary: Markets look through Omicron-induced job losses
- Shades of 2017: Toronto housing boom hits new absurd heights
- Vancouver loses crown as most expensive market….sort of
- Calgary now the most exciting market in the country
- Quebec home sales fall 25%: Inventory shortage or buyer fatigue?
- Game Changer: Bank of Canada backed into a corner as inflation expectations jump
- National home sales update
- Supply/Demand deep-dive: Housing starts pull back even as rental construction surges
- household credit update: Consumers tap credit cards again as savings slow
- Mortgage market update: Nearly 40% of mortgages will reset higher in 2022
- Monitoring key risks
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