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October 2022

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September 2022

  1. Affordability pressures intensify as Bank of Canada continues to hike rates
  2. Toronto home sales snap back in August
  3.  Vancouver home sales down slightly
  4.  Calgary and Edmonton continue to buck national trends
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August 2022

  1. Finally some relief for potential buyers as rates begin to grind lower
  2. Takeaways from Toronto and Vancouver home sales
  3. Alberta outperformance continues
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  1. If inflation is cooling, why are bond yields rising again?
  2. What’s the big deal with trigger rates?
  3.  Takeaway from July home sales: Steep drop in prices, but also some good news
  4. Supply and demand: Record construction activity, immigration surge continues
  5. Mortgage market update: Finally some reprieve for prospective buyers as rates fall
  6. Consumer check: First signs of a slowdown in spending, insolvencies rise
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July 2022

  1. Economic commentary: Outsized rate hike next week but the end is in sight
  2. Toronto home sales hit 20-year lows in June
  3. Vancouver home sales slide, prices begin to soften
  4. Alberta still holding firm
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  1. Finally signs that inflationary pressures may be easing?
  2. Updating the most important chart
  3. Takeaway from June home sales: Record drop in house prices
  4. Supply and demand: Housing starts jump, immigration hits yet another record
  5. Mortgage market update
  6. Consumer check: Rising rates begin to bite
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June 2022

  1. Economic commentary: Bank of Canada signals more rate hikes may be needed
  2. More price pressure in Toronto as sales tumble again, condo market weakens
  3. Vancouver home sales slide, prices begin to soften
  4. Alberta sales slow, prices stall. Are condo speculators moving this market?
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  1. Affordability under pressure as rates continue to surge
  2. Takeaway from May home sales: Sales down, prices in Ontario under pressure
  3. Supply and demand: Housing starts jump, immigration hits yet another record
  4. Credit trends: Mortgage boom peaks in QI, no uptick in insolvencies yet
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May 2022

  1. Economic commentary: Jobs market still strong (for now), but where’s the wage growth?
  2. Toronto slowdown intensifies, prices slip
  3. Vancouver home sales tumble 22%, prices hold firm for now
  4. Alberta home sales slow but price gains accelerate
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  1. Inflation stunner means more tightening ahead from Bank of Canada
  2. Interest rates are taking a huge bite out of affordability
  3. Home sales tumble, prices slip in April
  4. Housing starts jump, immigration hits new record, rental market tightens
  5. Mortgage growth remains high in March, variable rates still popular
  6. Consumer check: Insolvencies and delinquencies still low, but probably not for long
  7. OSFI keeps busy fighting the last battle
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April 2022

  1. Economic commentary: The only chart that matters
  2. Clear signs of a sudden shift in Toronto
  3. Vancouver sales fall 24%, but still no supply
  4. Alberta booms as population flows pick up steam
  5. Quebec home sales continue to slow off record pace
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  1. Thoughts on cyclical vs secular downturn
  2. Inflation stunner means more tightening ahead from Bank of Canada
  3. Interest rates are about to seriously mess things up!
  4. National home sales update: Sales fall, inventory still low but rising quickly
  5. Supply/demand deep-dive: Huge surge in new resident admissions so far in 2022
  6. Mortgage growth hits 14-year high, variable rate popularity surges
  7. Monitoring key risks: OSFI puts mortgage market on notice
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March 2022

  1. Economic commentary: War and recession risk
  2. Subtle signs of change in Toronto housing as inventory levels surge
  3. Vancouver posts largest ever monthly house price gain even as condo listings surge
  4. Calgary home sales keep surging
  5. Quebec home sales stall but lack of inventory keeps market tight
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  1. Bank of Canada hikes, signals more to come as inflation rages
  2. National home sales update
    1. Largest increase in active listings since 2010
    2. Pullback in demand still likely as sales remain 25% above normal levels
    3. Market still extremely tight, record jump in price
  3.  A massive misallocation of capital or the new normal?
  4. Supply/demand deep-dive: Immigration hits new highs just as housing starts slow
  5. Household credit update: Insolvencies stable, balance sheets look solid
    1. Household balance sheets still look very solid in Q4
    2. Still no signs of stress among borrowers
    3. Macro backdrop still looks solid
    4. BUT….borrowers are beginning to feel the pinch of rising rates
  6.  Mortgage market update: Variable accounts for 60% of new mortgages
    1. Household credit growth hits highest since 2009
    2. Surge in demand for variable rate products
    3. Originations hit record in Q4
    4. Real rates still deeply negative
  7.  Monitoring key risks
    1. Russia/Ukraine conflict could create food security issues
    2. Mortgage regulation changes
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February 2022

  1. Bank of Canada rate hikes baked in for March
  2.  National home sales update
    1. I’m calling it: We are witnessing peak insanity
    2. Setting up for a significant slowdown in the back half of the year?
    3. Alberta housing: Still quietly booming
  3.  Supply/demand deep-dive: Big increase to federal immigration targets
  4. Household credit update: Insolvencies fall, consumer spending slows
    1. Consumer spending slows: Was it really Omicron or is there more at play?
    2. HELOCs back in vogue
    3. Consumer insolvencies remains low for now
  5.  Mortgage market update: Borrowers still love variable rates
    1. Household credit growth slows in December
    2. Fixed mortgage rates continue to rise, variable originations surge
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January 2022

  1. Economic commentary: Markets look through Omicron-induced job losses
  2. Shades of 2017: Toronto housing boom hits new absurd heights
  3. Vancouver loses crown as most expensive market….sort of
  4. Calgary now the most exciting market in the country
  5. Quebec home sales fall 25%: Inventory shortage or buyer fatigue?
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